Uniswap continues to grow both in fundamentals and price action. In spite of a macro correction, where the Nasdaq retraced over 10% and Ether 30%, UNI and other DEX tokens continue to outperform. With the Coinbase IPO closing in and the $1.9T stimulus approved, the perfect storm may be brewing for DEX tokens.
UNI and BNT both hit new all-time highs this week, while SUSHI came within 2% of its $20.50 high. SUSHI’s recent price action came following its recent listing in Coinbase. While UNI and BNT had already been listed in the centralized exchange, their increasing price action has certainly been influenced by Coinbase’s rumored $100 billion pre-IPO valuation.
Though there are major differences between Coinbase and decentralized exchanges, they can be compared head to head in terms of trading volume (the vast majority of Coinbase’s revenue comes from trading fees).
Over the past week, Coinbase has traded on average $2.61 billion per day. In contrast, Uniswap has settled approximately $955 million per day, but at a significantly cheaper valuation of $16 billion.
As of March 10, 2021 using IntoTheBlock’s Uniswap Protocol Metrics
To put the comparison clearly, Coinbase is currently trading at 38.31 times its daily trading volume, while Uniswap is valued at 16.75 times its volume. If UNI closes this gap versus Coinbase’s valuation it could expect an increase of over 2.2x in price all else being equal, while SUSHI and BNT could grow even further to close this gap.
Asides from the Coinbase IPO, stimulus checks coming within the next two weeks may further add to the risk-on momentum. As stocks recover from the recent correction, the risk-on sentiment appears to still be present as evidenced by Roblox’s recent IPO, with its $37 billion valuation pricing it over 40 times price-to-sales (P/S).
In comparison, Uniswap, Bancor and SushiSwap are being priced at 25, 16 and 8 P/S ratios respectively. With the stimulus checks approaching, it would be surprising for these multiples not to expand.
On-Chain Data Backs Bullish Trend
Blockchain data supports the trend of bullish positioning among investors in DEX tokens. Centralized exchange flows point to high amounts of UNI in particular being withdrawn.
Netflows, which measure the amount of tokens being deposited into exchanges minus those being withdrawn, have reached a new low of $82 million in a day for UNI. In other words $82 million more UNI were withdrawn than deposited into centralized exchanges on March 8.
The magnitude of UNI withdrawals from centralized exchanges points to the likelihood of recent investors opting to hold their positions and/or deposit them for extra yield in DeFi protocols.
Moreover, UNI has also seen vast levels of trading activity amongst institutional players. IntoTheBlock’s large transactions volume, which tracks the aggregate volume sent across transfers of over $100,000, acts as a proxy for institutions’ and whales’ trading.
As of March 10, 2021 using IntoTheBlock’s UNI financial indicators
Large transactions volume for UNI recently took off to a new all-time high of over $5 billion. The increase in institutional activity coincided with a 10% increase in price, suggesting a high likelihood of large players buying the token.
Overall, investors in DEX tokens appear to be showing signs of confidence. With Coinbase’s high valuation in its upcoming IPO and stimulus checks set to begin distribution, DEX tokens are poised to continue to grow.