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DeFi Alpha Call #20 Recap

Hello Defiers! This is the recap of our latest DeFi Alpha Call that took place on 9/26/2022 in Discord.

If you find this summary helpful, please share it with a friend!

Market Overview

We’re reaching the end of the September Swoon. The next meeting of the Fed will be on November 2 and we have US midterm elections coming up, so it’s possible that October will be a good month for risk assets.

Macroeconomic conditions 

We’re in uncharted territory with the Euro at $0.96 and a runaway dollar, thanks to the Fed. From my point of view, the dollar is way overstretched. It’s on an unsustainable path and the effects are being felt all around the world.

  • S&P tested its June low.
  • Even though the dollar is rallying and the stock markets are going down, crypto is holding up surprisingly well. 

An early sign of a change in trend and sentiment?

  • Despite the fact that we’ve crashed and been oversold for a while, price is holding up and we might start to go up from here.
  • September is always the worst month for markets, according to historical data.
  • Markets tend to perform best in the fourth quarter.
  • Regulations, sanctions, and other bad news are having less of an impact. It seems like whoever wanted to sell already has.
  • I’m cautiously long again.

ETH – The pattern is messy

This is the pattern that usually repeats.

If we reached the bottom here, we might be able to draw a channel like this in a couple of weeks.

As things stand now, I’m maintaining a bullish bias as long as this low stays in place. If it’s broken, we’d probably see ETH around $1100 in short order. Then things would get really dicey below that. So let’s hope that doesn’t happen.

Bitcoin – Still Dead

  • Bitcoin has been really lethargic.
  • It needs to get above 20K for even a chance of sustained upside.

Portfolio Positioning – Be nimble in this environment.

  • I don’t think this is a good time to buy and hold unless you’re in it for the long term and you’re fine waiting for the next cycle.
  • Stick to your strategy, whether it’s DCA or shorter-term trades
  • Take advantage of what the market gives you, there are opportunities to be found even in the bear.
  • Don’t force trades, this is an extremely challenging environment.

Expectations – Bounce Likely But Sustainability In Question

  • To be honest, I think it will be harder to get the same returns from the market as we have in the past 20 years.
  • The party can’t go on forever on borrowed money. Even after the latest correction, stocks are still expensive on a historical basis.
  • The sell-off has been quite sharp. You’d expect some sort of rally or at least a bounce from these oversold levels. And then we will see how it goes from there.


  • ALGO is quite a constructive chart, and we’ve caught it fairly early. It looks like a possible range breakout after a few months of sideways action
  • FIFA launched a collection of NFTs that I covered in last week’s Roundup.
  • If the breakout is real, it could probably rally to the 200dma, which is 47 cents.
  • This is still a decent amount of upside, looks like 50% from here.
  • Again, everything is going to depend on the dollar and how broader markets stabilize.

NFT Roundup

Hedz by Matt Furie. A new collection from the creator of Pepe. Up about 3X, they had passed 3 ETH, but they pulled back a bit. I tried to get into the mint, but to be honest, the art doesn’t really appeal to me.

Renga. I’ve talked about Renga before in the Roundup, and it’s been doing well, staying above 1 ETH, even though nobody knows what the character is going to do or how the roadmap looks.

Fidenza by Tyler Hobbs. The art block sensation from back in 2021 is back to a 100 ETH floor after dropping to about 60 ish. The artist is putting out a new project called QQL that has an interesting 2% royalty mechanic for minters.

Atari dropped a set of NFTs. I don’t expect these to moon or have any utility beyond the art, but I still picked one up for the memories.

  • Slight uptick in activity across the board
  • When it comes to new releases, there haven’t been many new mints or projects that are taking off to more than 1 ETH. That indicates that collectors are being pickier. 
  • Since 90% of the NFT space has vanished, you have to have something really unique or really good art to catch the attention of the people who are still here. Now, only the true believers and collectors are left.

Open Chat

Keywords: swell network, running a node, airdrops, taxes.

Do you want us to dive deeper into some of these topics? Leave a comment below.

Yields and Tutorials

  • Yields: Up to 25% APR on Stablecoins, 7-10% on ETH and BTC
  • Tutorial: Earn NFTs By Completing Quests On Optimism


DeFi, NFT & Web3 Insights – The Defiant
⍺ DeFi Alpha: Earn NFTs By Completing Quests On Optimism
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